Farai Mabeza
Zimbabwe and other African countries are facing a critical test of their ability to turn climate forecasts into action as a potentially severe El Niño develops, with early warning systems emerging as one of the most important tools for protecting communities, food supplies and livelihoods.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in September that there was almost a 100 percent probability of El Niño persisting through February 2027, describing the outlook as the most unequivocal in its 50-year history. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the event demanded “exceptional preparation and response”.
For Zimbabwe, the warning carries particular weight after the 2023–2024 El Niño brought severe drought across southern Africa, damaging agricultural production and placing additional pressure on already vulnerable households.
The experience of communities in Chipinge shows how early warning systems can make a practical difference.
In Ward 28, Headman Mutape Jerera receives flood and severe-weather warnings through Ndau Community Radio. A solar-powered transmission booster, supported by the UN Development Programme’s Climate Adaptation, Water and Energy Programme, helps keep the station broadcasting when communities need the information most. The programme has reached 2.8 million people with early warnings and advisories.
But forecasting a disaster is only the first step.
A warning issued by a meteorological agency has limited value if it does not reach households in a language they understand, with enough time to act. Early warning systems must therefore be connected to early action—including decisions on planting dates, drought-resistant or short-cycle crops, water management, livestock protection, social protection and emergency assistance.
The lesson extends beyond Zimbabwe. In Madagascar’s drought-prone Grand Sud, climate information is being transmitted through local radio, SMS and community officials, allowing farmers and vulnerable households to prepare before drought conditions translate into food and water shortages.
Africa\'s ability to withstand the next El Niño will therefore depend not only on the accuracy of its forecasts, but on whether those forecasts reach the people on the ground—and whether governments have systems ready to respond before crisis arrives.
